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Quick Facebook Ads Check-In

November 18, 2021

It’s early for me to be checking in, for me to be counting chickens, so you must know that means things are going well. At the risk of sound too jolly too early, things are going well but they’re not going so well I can’t use the results thus far to drive home a very important point about patience and runway.

Where are we at thus far?

Here’s the spend and the clicks received for that spend:

Now, this is a bit on the pricy side, but my niche is “podcasts for podcasters” and that’s a terribly difficult niche to target. I’m also targeting a Look-a-Like audience which is based on a pre-existing custom audience that I’m not sure is the best to be targeting but I wanted to try anyway.

Of those 30 clicks, how many actually played an episode?

Chartable results for the same time berio

30%! And, more interestingly, and more exciting, those 9 accounted for 36 total downloads within the 7-day attribution window, which means each of these clickers has stuck around or ventured into the back catalogue to consume an average of 4 episodes.

But Tanner! You’ve said in the past this rate of ad-click-to-episode-play is around 80%. Did you lie to us!?

No. I have also said in the past that some guesswork had to go into assuming that % because I wasn’t aware I could use Chartable links in Facebook Ads. That 80% may have been *a little* less, but not this much less. What I suspect is that my niche, being far less targetable and far less interesting than many niches (like true crime, comedy, etc), simply cannot perform that well. Or, because it’s still to early to be sure, at least cannot perform that well with the targeting I’m currently using.

So why don’t you change the targeting?

That’s the temptation. The temptation is to finagle the targeting now because I’d rather see it at 50% or 80%… but I don’t know enough about what’s off with this targeting yet to do it. This is a pitfall that a lot of newbie paid ads people will fall into:

“Oh no! It’s not performing well after a week! Let’s change the targeting!”

One week later,

“Oh no! Now it’s worse! Let’s change it back!”

We’re spending ~$150 over the duration of the campaign no matter what the results are, but if we’re concerned to early about “bang for the buck” we fiddle with things too frequently to have truly informative data at the end of the first 30-days.

Here’s a change I feel I could make right this second, but I won’t, because I want a full 30-day view before I make any changes:

Clearly men, 35-44 are the most responsive to my ad, so perhaps I should exclude the 25-34 and 45-54 range and also exclude women, because while they cost less to acquire, they are acquired far less frequently. So I could, if I were impatient, make that change now and perhaps see a change… but I don’t know if those 9 new devices came from males 35-44 or if they came from women in the 25-34 and 45-54 groups. It’s too early, and there’s too little data, to be fucking around with the targeting.

I know this is hard, if you’re going along with me, because it feels like you’re wasting money, but you’re not. Instead, you’re paying to learn something about your market, and what you’ll learn at the end of 30-days of data will be worth the $5/day you’ve spend in this first month. Trust me.

Right now I’m retaining 30% of clicks. That’s incredible.

At the end of the month I’ll look at the month of data, and make some targeting adjustments with the intent of raising that to 50% in month two. Rinse and repeat for month three and I might get this to 60-80% and, for a podcast for podcasters, that’d be quite a feat.

I may also change the ad creative! To include my shiny new Indie Certified badge! Right now the ad looks like this:

But… if I do that now, I’ll muck with the data. So… I’ve got to be patient. You have to be patient too.

More in a few weeks.